Did I mention I have kids?

I won't be around these parts much through the weekend - Halloween tonight, then a swim meet in Easton tomorrow. Not that the world's dying to know my latest thoughts on the election, but I just wanted you to know this little experiment didn't die in six days, either.

So it's not just me...

Even celebrities get their Obama signs stolen.

CINCINNATI – Rocker Peter Frampton is wishing someone would show him the way to keep his Barack Obama yard signs from getting swiped.

The Grammy winner is complaining that signs showing his preference for the Democratic presidential candidate have been stolen repeatedly at his home in the upscale and predominantly Republican Cincinnati suburb of Indian Hill.

Frampton, 58, is so angry, he called The Cincinnati Enquirer asking to be interviewed.

The British-born singer of "Show Me the Way" and other hits told the newspaper that one reason he became a U.S. citizen was so he could vote. Now, he says his American rights to free speech and political speech are being violated and it "bugs" him.

Frampton said he has installed a video camera to catch the thieves.

To me, the real question is this: Why is Peter Frampton living in Cincinnati?

The Daily Times endorses Kratovil

The Daily Times has endorsed Frank Kratovil. You can read the endorsement in its entirety here.

Many may think this was a foregone conclusion, but this is a paper that has endorsed Wayne Gilchrest (he IS a Republican, if you remember) for each of his re-election bids, iirc. And the editors at The Daily Times are certainly no knee-jerk liberals, despite the protestations you may read on the web. Greg Bassett and Erick Sahler won't be found at any Democratic Party mixers any time soon. And for those who don't know, Greg's wife Cathy works for Gilchrest. Did I mention Gilchrest is a Republican?

Here are some of the high points of the endorsement:

• Harris and his emissaries have orchestrated a scorched-earth campaign that makes many people in the low-key 1st District uncomfortable.

• Harris knows that those out-of-context words -- the now infamous "crisis solved" conclusion -- have been misrepresented, that Kratovil was making a point that transcended a mere sound bite. Kratovil never used the words.

• There is little to gain in electing a figure who will inevitably serve as a member of the "loyal opposition" in Washington.

• Harris is the established partisan conservative, but Kratovil has the sure potential to demonstrate independence.
  

So, in the end, Andy Harris has garnered exactly ONE endorsement from a newspaper in the 1st District. The rest (as far as I can find) go to Kratovil.

In fact, if blogs matter at all, he can add one more. Duck Around hereby endorses Frank Kratovil. Alert the media, will ya?

Andy Harris, spaghetti chef

Because he's just throwing stuff against the wall to see what sticks now. 

First, Frank was a "liberal." Apparently, that was supposed to scare us. 

Then, he'd be "just another vote for Pelosi." Wow, I'm losing sleep now. 

Then he said Frank said "we'd solved the crisis." Except Frank didn't say it, and Harris got called on it by the very paper he quoted. He still sticks by the ad, by the way, even at last night's debate.

Now, he's taking a page from the "He's a terrorist!" playbook of Jon McCain and Sarah Palin, because the latest charge is, drum roll please....

Frank Kratovil is a friend of child molesters. Seriously, he's saying that.

First off, no politician is getting bought off for a $250 donation, which is what the Harris campaign is alleging. None are THAT cheap. 

Second, Andy Harris has tried this before with this charge, and it almost got him booed out of the building at Salisbury University. From the PolitickerMD article linked above:

"When he first attempted this baseless smear during a debate at Salisbury University a month ago, the audience nearly booed him off the stage," McCann wrote in an email to PolitickerMD.com. "But now, less than a week from Election Day and losing in the polls, Andy Harris is throwing away what tiny shred of personal integrity he had left."

Andy Harris, making us proud. Visitor's pass, people. Make sure the only way Andy Harris sees the inside of the House chamber is with a visitor's pass.

Today's Reminder - $1 Million out-of-state Harris dollars

Here's today's visual reminder that 54% of Andy Harris' FEC-declared itemized donations come from out of state, to the tune of ONE MILLION DOLLARS. I debated about putting Dr. Evil in the center, but decided Harris himself was scarier. 

 

That doesn't count the $300,000 Club For Growth has directly used on TV ads. One million smackeroos. That's a lot of out-of-state influence on a local politician, don't you think? I wonder you HE thinks he'll be representing...

Frank Kratovil - in his own words

If you've got 30 minutes to kill, spend it listening to Frank Kratovil in his own words speaking with The Daily Times Executive Editor Greg Bassett.

WARNING - This is an AUTOPLAY video. So it will start as soon as you load the page. Wish it wasn't, but it is. I'd embed it here, but AutoPlay video is a no-no for blogs, at least in my estimation.

FULL DISCLOSURE: I worked with Greg for 3 1/2 years in the early '90s when I was a reporter at The Daily Times. Man, that feels like a lifetime ago...

Van Hollen: MD-01 to be decided by turnout

Politicker MD (a very good Maryland political site, by the way), has a short story on Rep. Chris Van Hollen's take on the race in the 1st District. Why should we care what Van Hollen says? Because he's chairman of the DCCC, and the man most responsible for the DCCC forking over $1 million for TV ads for Frank Kratovil.

"It's gonna go right down to the wire," Rep. Van Hollen (D-Kensington) toldPolitickerMD.com at the state Democratic Party's One Week to Victory 2008 Gala fundraiser at the Baltimore Hilton Hotel on Monday.

Van Hollen says overall turnout will be a major factor come Election Day and that Kratovil needs to continue getting out and meeting voters."Good old fashioned politics," is what it will take to put Frank Kratovil over the top against Republican Andy Harris, according to Van Hollen.

That's what the Kratovil campaign has believed all along. With enthusiasm for Obama, and disheartened Republicans, if we can get people to go to the polls, Kratovil should win. Make those calls. Talk to your friends. But most of all, make sure YOU vote Tuesday!

Wicomico ranks DEAD LAST as a county in HSA passing percentage

The Maryland State Board of Education voted today to keep the High School Assessment tests as a graduation requirement. From The Baltimore Sun:

The state school board voted today to continue to require that Maryland's high school seniors must earn a minimum score on state graduation exams or complete projects to earn a diploma this spring.

The board voted 7-4 this afternoon to deny a motion that would have delayed the requirement.

According to data presented at the board meeting this morning, nine in 10 of the state's high school seniors who have taken the state High School Assessments have met the requirements needed to graduate.

Uh, yeah, about that 9 in 10 figure. Not so much, if you're looking at Wicomico County. It's more like 15 in 20 here. Only 75% of Wicomico County's seniors have passed the requirements.

Let's look at the Eastern Shore counties (and Baltimore City, just to boost our self-esteem):

There's no spin to be put on this one. There's no extenuating circumstances we can argue to justify that number. We're just not getting it done.

I see the work our teachers at my high school put into this. Teachers are giving up free periods to mentor students with the Bridge program, the alternate way to graduate if you don't pass the HSAs.The Board of Education offers after-school and weekend remediation for those who haven't passed the HSA testing. Teachers are staying late, coming in early, and even offering help on weekends. Some of the time, like the structured remediation classes, are paid. But most of the time is not.

It's gotten to the point that math teachers are handed a curriculum that has benchmarks several times each marking period, to the point that each day's instruction is almost mapped out by the county. And it's not working.

When Somerset County is out-performing Wicomico by 8 percent, and Cecil County, with more students, is outperforming us by 14 percent, it's obvious there's a problem.

Something's got to be done. I personally think it starts with reinforcing, again and again, to the students that if you don't pass your HSAs, you will not graduate. Maybe, just maybe, seniors learning the lesson the hard way this year will spike the numbers north in years to come.

But we have to take a hard look at what we're doing, WHY it isn't working, and what we're going to do differently. Because 75% of our seniors on track to graduate is simply not acceptable.

P.S. - Can ANYONE get Blogger to play nice with tables?

Sign thieves suck

I come home from work today to again find an empty frame where my Obama sign used to be.

Now, I don't think the wind was blowing hard enough to blow the sign off its frame.

You know what sign WAS still where I left it?

Doesn't exactly lend itself to being thrown in the back of a car, does it? 

Question 2 - From one who's been there

My wife's cousin, Barb Ickes, is one of the featured columnists for The Quad City Times out in Davenport, IA. It's beautiful country, and reminds me a lot of the Shore, just with more hills and fewer beaches. And cheaper golf.

Illinois allowed riverboat-based slot machines about a decade and a half ago. To hear the riverboat companies tell it, it's been a great success:

With the introduction of the Alton Belle casino, Illinois became the second state to allow riverboat casinos. Argosy's Alton Belle Casino was the first riverboat casino in Illinois, opening its doors in 1991. Now there are 9 major casinos in Illinois, home to riverboat casinos. Taxed at the highest rate in the nation, Illinois casinos have been limited by the government's restrictions and the state is now at the maximum limit for gaming licenses. In spite of restrictions, Illinois casinos still provide guests with a wide range of gaming options to choose from. 

In the real world? Not so much. I wrote to Barb to ask her take as a journalist and a resident who has lived through the legalization of gambling. She's not impressed, to say the least. I asked her for a few words on the topic. Here's her response:

     Impossible to answer in a few words, unless those words are: RUN, don't walk, away from this proposition. There are a few "unlesses", such as; 

     1. Unless the school funding "designations" are part of the state constitution because they'd better be. If not, the state will find ways and reasons to spend this windfall outside of schools. BELIEVE me. That money will go to a general fund so fast that voters will have no idea what hit them. 

     2. Is there assistance in place for gambling addiction? You say "slots," and everyone thinks of some harmless one-armed bandit. We've got blue-haired retirees sitting in front of slot machines at our three local casinos day and night, pissing away their hard-earned retirement, because they regard the casino staff as "family" and because, frankly, they have nothing better to do. Not to mention, of course, that they are completely and utterly HOOKED.

     3.  "...legalized in a limited way..."? HA!!! Your state legislators will get a taste of this easy money, and the slots will pour down like April rain. Mark my words. Five locations!? Give it a year. They'll be wanting to put them in grocery stores. Mark my words. Maybe I already said that.

Granted, the situation in Maryland is much more similar to that of Delaware than Illinois. Delaware legalized video slots at the Harrington Raceway at the State Fair Festival Grounds and at Dover Downs. 

 Can you win big money on slots?
 YES! Our largest jackpot to date is $375,179.87,won in June 2006! And we had the first Ca$hola jackpot winner of $318,760.55, won in July 2007! Click here to see our BIG WINNERS!

 What is the minimum age to enter the casino?
 You must be 21 years of age to enter the slot facility.

Delaware legalized slots in the mid-1990s, and Dover Downs opened their slots parlor in 1996. According to The Baltimore Sun, betting on race horses is down 40 percent since slots were introduced. Joe DeFranics, Maryland's racing impresario, liked what he saw back in 1998, and wanted a piece of the action, all while helping the state raise tax money. From the Baltimore City Paper:

Using the very conservative figure of $300 a day per machine--far below what the Delaware tracks take in--slots could bring in from $438 million (for the 4,000 machines proposed in the legislature this year) to $547 million (for the 5,000 machines DeFrancis wants) annually. Under the Delaware model--with the state lottery agency owning the machines and paying out nearly 50 percent "commissions" to the track owners--DeFrancis could rake in between $219 million and $273 million a year.

In the first five months of 1998, the slot machines at the three Delaware racetracks--Delaware Park, Dover Downs, and Harrington--have each netted an average of $361.10 every day. If slots here show that level of play, that could up DeFrancis' take to between $262 million and $327 million.

DeFrancis says the numbers are deceiving, and that it wouldn't be pure profit. But if he staffed each track at approximately the same level as Dover Downs, his payroll would be about $20 million, including all benefits. That would leave him with upwards of $200 million a year, which would mean he could pay for all renovations necessary to accommodate slots within the first year and be completely in the black.

     Maryland currently allows fraternal organizations such as the Veterans of Foreign Wars and American Legion operate video slots, as long as the proceeds are paid out in charitable donations. I've been the recipient of one such donation as a high school coach. American Legion Post 145 gave $1,000 back in 1995 to help my high school's wrestling team with new warm-ups. It was money greatly appreciated and not available through any other source I could procure, anyway. Note to self - start golfing with wealthy people more often...

     So where does that leave us on Question 2? The teachers' association wants it, because they believe the amendment language that says the money will be dedicated to education. Opponents to slots say it won't raise as much money as advertised and will costs the state in addictions treatments. Right now, state polls say it's a winner - according to a Washington Post poll, 62% of Marylanders say they support the question.

     I'll admit, as a teacher, I love the idea of increased funding for schools that's not tied to a tax. I've got a Vote For Question 2 sign in my yard. But the more I think about it, the more I think I'll be taking it down sooner rather than later.

MD-01 polling - Not what we were hoping to see, but not the end of the world

Here are the polling numbers from dKos and Research 2000:

Research 2000 for Daily Kos. 10/20-22. Likely voters. MoE ±5% (no trendlines).

Harris (R) 44

Kratovil (D) 40

Undecided 16

Well, hell. That's not what I wanted to see. But it shouldn't be surprising. Polls like this tend to push the undecided, and with the Kratovil internal and the DCCC polls both with double-digit undecideds, this isn't an unexpected result.

More interesting numbers from the polling:

This poll indicates that Kratovil has a real chance to win this election. The best numbers for him lie in his favorables, which are superior to Harris', and his numbers among independents.

Kratovil's favorables are at 45/33 favorable/unfavorable, a significant advantage over Harris' 45/44. He also leads among independents, 47% to 42%.

He will also be helped by an unusually strong Democratic candidacy in the district. Obama trails McCain 47-43 in MD-01...which is stunning, when you consider that Bush defeated Kerry 62-38 in the district.

So, what does it mean? It means 8 more days of hard work by the Kratovil campaign to sell the moderate Democrat's message. A quibble with the dKos write-up. Frank isn't really from the Eastern Shore - he's from Prince George's County and moved here in 1997. Which is still 11 years longer than Andy Harris has lived on the Shore - oh, wait, Andy Harris has NEVER lived on the Shore.

Now, what's the good news about a 4 point trail? Look at those fav/unfavs again. Frank's at +12. Andy is at +1. A high school vice principal could get a +1 with truant 9th graders. 

The plan is this - drive up the Shore's votes for Frank to undo the damage the western shore will do. Specifically, give African-Americans a reason to vote Kratovil, and let moderate Republicans know that Frank Kratovil has their interests at heart more than the neo-con, Club for Growth-funded Andy Harris.

Research 2000 has taken some heat for doing polling for a leftist blog, but their methodology has been ranked as pretty solid by Nate Silver over at fivethirtyeight.com. We can ignore these numbers at our peril. Just think of it as more proof there's still work to do. 

You can volunteer to make phone calls from 5:30-8:50 Monday, Wednesday and Friday this week at the Wicomico County Democratic HQ at 213 W. Main Street. That's the City Center building on the Downtown Plaza. From the Plaza entrance, just walk in the City Center and head to the back of the 1st floor.

Did you know Frank Kratovil eats babies?

Came out of service at church this morning, and found this wonderful piece of information stuck in my door. Click to see an enlarged version, if you so desire.

I'm really glad MdFamilies.org was around to tell me that Frank Kratovil wants to eat gay babies. I don't know what I'd do without that piece of information.

And I want to meet the guy who told Andy Harris that support for off-shore drilling would be a winning issue in a district that include the Chesapeake Bay and Atlantic coast.

Buying an election

There is heated debate concerning Question 2 on Nov. 4th's Maryland ballot. Simply put, proponents of slots want it passed so they will be legalized in 5 locations throughout the state. One of those locations is Berlin. Question 2 says...

Authorizes the state to issue up to five video lottery licenses for the purpose of raising revenue for education of children in public schools, prekindergarten through grade 12, public school construction and improvements, and construction of capital projects at community colleges and higher education institutions. No more than a total number of 15,000 video lottery terminals may be authorized in the state, and only one license may be issued for each specified location in Anne Arundel, Cecil, Worcester, and Allegany Counties and Baltimore City. Any additional forms or expansion of commercial gaming in Maryland is prohibited, unless approved by a voter referendum.

The MCEA (state teachers' association), AFL-CIO, AFSCME, Maryland Retailers Association and Maryland Chamber of Commerce have all supported the bill. So why, with all this support of diverse groups, does this send a big red flag up for me? From the Associated Press, via Saturday's The Daily Times:

ANNAPOLIS, Md. (AP) — A union that represents state employees has given $500,000 to a pro-slots group according to a filing by the group.

     The half-million dollar contribution by the American Federation of State, County and Municipal Employees was by far the largest among the $611,342 reported by the group, For Maryland For Our Future, during a two-week period this month. The group also said it received $100,000 from family members of and a business affiliated with the owner of an Eastern Shore racetrack that would be eligible for a slots license.

I'm all for education. And I guess we shouldn't be so surprised at political contributions like this. But $100K to help buy the outcome you want? Is this really how we want to decide referenda in this state?

Might as well vote for Mickey Mouse

The math looks good for Frank Kratovil. Maryland will go heavily for Obama, and hopefully, African-Americans will be exercising the right to vote in unseen numbers. (For that matter, I hope everyone exercises the right to vote in unseen numbers).

But as one local volunteer told me, it comes down to this - if Barack Obama can win Wicomico County, Frank Kratovil will win this race.

Any friends you have who are on the fence about voting, get them to the polls. Yes, it's obvious Obama will win Maryland. That's not the point. He needs good Democrats, too. And that means electing Frank Kratovil to Congress. 

And perhaps more important is this - a vote for Andy Harris is a wasted vote. He won't sniff a decent committee assignment. He won't be able to champion projects in the 1st District. He will be part of an irrelevant minority that will only be able to be heard when they shut down government through their own obstinence.  He will scream and yell all he wants about outlawing abortion, or eliminating government oversight of development, and "wasteful" spending on education and health care. 

And not a person in Washington is going to listen to him. Make sure your Republican friends know this - Andy Harris will be ignored in Washington. Completely ignored.

Thinking of voting for Andy Harris? You might as well write-in Mickey Mouse. It will do about as much good.

Just who is Andy Harris hoping to represent?

Transparent government is a wonderful thing, as is the Internet. I've always said Andy Harris isn't running to be Maryland's 1st District congressman, he's running to be Andy Harris (R-CfG). Club for Growth has bought and paid for him, and they are willing to do what it takes to get him elected.  

Let's take a quick look at who's funding each campaign. 

LASTEST FEC report for itemized donations (accessed 10/25/2008) 

FRANK KRATOVIL:
98 out-of-state itemized donors
$77,325 in itemized out-of-state donations. 

1,351 in-state donors
$610,495 in itemized in-state donations. 

93% of all itemized Kratovil donors are in-state.
89% of all itemized Kratovil donations are in-state. 

ANDY HARRIS:
1,408 itemized out-of-state donors
$1,078,414 in itemized out-of-state donations.
Of those, 315 itemized out-of-state donations earmarked through Club for Growth for a total of $301,973

2,808 itemized in-state donors
Of those, 269 were earmarked through Club for Growth $908,003 in in-state itemized donations. 

33% of all itemized Harris donors are out-of-state.
54% of all itemized Harris donations are out-of-state.

Last time I checked, that's more than half.

 

That doesn't count outside money on TV ads, like CfG or the DCCC. That money is not included, which would include the $1 million that the Democratic Party had set aside to advertise in this race. This list is just donations directly to the campaign.

Frank's  numbers are here.

Andy's numbers are here.

Happy hunting...