MD-01 polling - Not what we were hoping to see, but not the end of the world

Here are the polling numbers from dKos and Research 2000:

Research 2000 for Daily Kos. 10/20-22. Likely voters. MoE ±5% (no trendlines).

Harris (R) 44

Kratovil (D) 40

Undecided 16

Well, hell. That's not what I wanted to see. But it shouldn't be surprising. Polls like this tend to push the undecided, and with the Kratovil internal and the DCCC polls both with double-digit undecideds, this isn't an unexpected result.

More interesting numbers from the polling:

This poll indicates that Kratovil has a real chance to win this election. The best numbers for him lie in his favorables, which are superior to Harris', and his numbers among independents.

Kratovil's favorables are at 45/33 favorable/unfavorable, a significant advantage over Harris' 45/44. He also leads among independents, 47% to 42%.

He will also be helped by an unusually strong Democratic candidacy in the district. Obama trails McCain 47-43 in MD-01...which is stunning, when you consider that Bush defeated Kerry 62-38 in the district.

So, what does it mean? It means 8 more days of hard work by the Kratovil campaign to sell the moderate Democrat's message. A quibble with the dKos write-up. Frank isn't really from the Eastern Shore - he's from Prince George's County and moved here in 1997. Which is still 11 years longer than Andy Harris has lived on the Shore - oh, wait, Andy Harris has NEVER lived on the Shore.

Now, what's the good news about a 4 point trail? Look at those fav/unfavs again. Frank's at +12. Andy is at +1. A high school vice principal could get a +1 with truant 9th graders. 

The plan is this - drive up the Shore's votes for Frank to undo the damage the western shore will do. Specifically, give African-Americans a reason to vote Kratovil, and let moderate Republicans know that Frank Kratovil has their interests at heart more than the neo-con, Club for Growth-funded Andy Harris.

Research 2000 has taken some heat for doing polling for a leftist blog, but their methodology has been ranked as pretty solid by Nate Silver over at fivethirtyeight.com. We can ignore these numbers at our peril. Just think of it as more proof there's still work to do. 

You can volunteer to make phone calls from 5:30-8:50 Monday, Wednesday and Friday this week at the Wicomico County Democratic HQ at 213 W. Main Street. That's the City Center building on the Downtown Plaza. From the Plaza entrance, just walk in the City Center and head to the back of the 1st floor.