Banking Lessons and Bedford Falls

I used to teach U.S. History and Consumer Economics before I switched to World History. And when we came to the topic of banks and the FDIC and why banks fail, I'd usually pull out a copy of "It's a Wonderful Life" and show the bank run scene. It's as good an explanation as any I've seen for the mess we're in.

"You're thinking of this place all wrong. As if I had the money back in a safe. The money's not here. Your money's in Joe's house...right next to yours. And in the Kennedy house, and Mrs. Macklin's house, and a hundred others. Why, you're lending them the money to build, and then, they're going to pay it back to you as best they can. Now what are you going to do? Foreclose on them?...Now wait...now listen...now listen to me. I beg of you not to do this thing. If Potter gets hold of this Building and Loan there'll never be another decent house built in this town. He's already got charge of the bank. He's got the bus line. He's got the department stores. And now he's after us. Why? Well, it's very simple. Because we're cutting in on his business, that's why. And because he wants to keep you living in his slums and paying the kind of rent he decides. Joe, you lived in one of those Potter houses, didn't you? Well, have you forgotten? Have you forgotten what he charged you for that broken-down shack? Here, Ed. You know, you remember last year when things weren't going so well, and you couldn't make your payments? You didn't lose your house, did you? Do you think Potter would have let you keep it? Can't you understand what's happening here? Don't you see what's happening? Potter isn't selling. Potter's buying! And why? Because we're panicky and he's not. That's why. He's picking up some bargains. Now, we can get through this thing all right. We've got to stick together, though. We've got to have faith in each other."

Of course, now the problem is, the money didn't just go into Joe's house. Joe's mortgage got bundled with a bunch of other mortgages, some good, some bad. And then insurance companies sold insurance on those bundled mortgages. And when a portion of the mortgages went bad, and the investors who bought the insurance went to collect, the financial markets went down, and AIG and the rest starting going hat in hand to Congress.

If we had been just putting money's in Joe's house, well, if Joe defaulted on his mortgage, the bank could handle that. They always have. Even in the 1970s energy crisis, the 21% interest rates of the late 1970s, and even the recession in the early 1980s.

Now? Now, we're handing out more than $7 TRILLION to companies, and the only one's we're asking for a plan or any sort of accountability is the auto industry. Because it's all the fault of minorities getting mortgages and auto workers making $73 an hour. Yup, that's the problem.

January 20 can't get here fast enough.

Happy Thanksgiving 2008

Hopefully, this won't come to pass, but...

Here's an amazing scene taken from "The Gold Rush", in which Chaplin, hungry Little Fellow for the Thanksgiving evening, cooks his own shoe and shares it with another man. They eat it as their meal, beyond poverty. 

Have I got a deal for you!

You know, I'm sure someone thought, "If they can sell waterfront condos in Crisfield, imagine what we could get in Salisbury!"

SALISBURY — The six-story Residences at Rivers Edge was auctioned Monday for $2.4 million, sold to the Washington-area bank that had lent money for construction of the riverfront project.

The 2 p.m. auction on the front steps of the Wicomico County Courthouse ended speculation over who would acquire the partially built, mid-rise residential condominium community on Fitzwater Street that became a victim of foreclosure.

Easton developer J. Michael Crosby was not visible among the estimated 50 spectators at the bidding. In April, Crosby's company was forced to stop construction at the structure on the Wicomico River after a dispute with Sandy Spring Bank, his lender. Sandy Spring, the highest bidder Monday, eventually ended its relationship with Crosby, forcing the foreclosure.

And when you name your development after a bad Crispin Glover movie about a bunch of teens who hide the murder of a classmate that also 4 Slayer songs on the soundtrack, you're just inviting bad karma.

Now I'm starting to get mad

Bear with me, this rant may not be completely coherent, but it's necessary for me.

I'm not coaching wrestling this year, but I still follow the team where I teach. And one of the kids I really liked coaching missed weight certifications on Saturday. I'll spare you the details, but it's the process where the Bayside Conference sets the minimum weight class for each wrestler. You can't go below that weight during the season for safety reasons. And the kid missed it, which means he can't wrestle until he gets it done at the make-up session in two weeks, and will miss the first match.

I was prepared to hunt him down in the hallways today and ask why he didn't show up for such an important team event. How could he let the team down like that? But before I found him, I found out why he wasn't there.

Seems he was in Baltimore, visiting family. Well, there are 51 other weekends a year to visit family, right? Why this one, and why not tell anyone?

He was in Baltimore because his mom didn't know where else to go. His mom, a single mother with two kids, a job, and a small (less than 1,000 sq.ft.) house she's attempting to buy, couldn't make the electrical bill. And Delmarva Power shut her off.

I'm not mad at Delmarva Power, although I certainly wish they'd be a bit more understanding.

I'm mad we are living in a country where a mother with school-age children does everything she can right - gets a job, keeps her kids in school, moves into a small (and I mean SMALL) house so she can keep a roof over their heads, and yet we can't build an economy where she can afford to keep the lights on.

Seems she used the last little bit of money they had to go to Baltimore because her sister offered to feed the kids and send some food back with them. So, the wrestler will miss this first match. But suddenly, that doesn't seem like the problem it did just 48 hours ago. And I'm not sure if he knows where he will be sleeping the rest of the week.

And I fear it's just going to get worse before it gets better.

Can we just inaugurate Obama now and let him get to work already?

Dr Pepper to deliver on Chinese Democracy free soda promise Sunday

From Blabbermouth.net, my favorite site for metal music news...

Don't cry, GUNS N' ROSES fans. The agonizing wait for the 17-years-in-the-making masterpiece "Chinese Democracy" will finally be over (fingers crossed) on November 23, 2008. Sure, there have been more rumored release dates than the 23 flavors of Dr Pepper, but if "Chinese Democracy" hits stores as announced, it's going to be so easy, easy for every American to get a free Dr Pepper as promised.

"We never thought this day would come," said Tony Jacobs, vice president of marketing for Dr Pepper. "But now that it's here, all we can say is: The Dr Pepper's on us." 

Dr Pepper is ready to give out free soda coupons to every American when the album releases on November 23, 2008. If you're out to get a free Dr Pepper just follow these simple steps: 

How to get your free Dr Pepper: 

1. On the Nov. 23, 2008 release date, go to www.drpepper.com
2. Register your information to receive a coupon for one free 20-oz. Dr Pepper.
3. When your coupon arrives, redeem it wherever Dr Pepper is sold. 
4. Drink your Dr Pepper slowly to experience all 23 flavors. Dr's orders.

Coupons will be available for 24 hours, starting at 12:01 a.m. Eastern Time on Nov. 23, 2008. Allow 4-6 weeks for coupon to arrive. Coupons will expire on February 28, 2009. Limit one coupon per person. Full terms and conditions available at www.drpepper.com.

National Hunger and Homelessness Week

Nationally:

Every day, homeless children are confronted with stressful, often traumatic events.

74% worry they will have no place to live

58% worry they will have no place to sleep

87% worry that something bad will happen to their family

(Homeless Children: America’s New Outcasts; www.familyhomelessnes.org)

Locally:

Did you know …

        As of June 1, 2006 Wicomico County identified 797 students as homeless.

        As of June 1, 2007, Wicomico County identified 1080 students as homeless.

        As of June 1, 2008, Wicomico County identified 1345 students as homeless.

        As of October 15, 2008, Wicomico County identified 1350 students as homeless.

**With the foreclosure crisis, we expect our numbers to continue to rise**

By Law:

 “Homeless children and youth” are “individuals who lack a fixed, regular, and adequate nighttime residence.” (- McKinney-Vento Homeless Assistance Act)

 

This applies to all of our students who are living:

·         In a place that is not fixed, regular or adequate

·         In motels, hotels, campgrounds

·         In emergency shelters or in transitional housing

·         Abandoned in Hospital

·         Awaiting Foster Placement

·         Public places not designed for people to sleep

·         With friends or relatives due to the loss of housing, economic hardship or similar reason

Read more about it in “Determining Eligibility for Rights and Services under the McKinney-Vento Act”

http://www.serve.org/nche/downloads/briefs/det_elig.pdf

Rep.-Elect Frank Kratovil checks out DC

From WMDT.com:

Congressman-Elect Frank Kratovil has been in Washington D.C. all week. He is with other new members for orientation. Kratovil won Maryland's First District seat in the election.

He says come January, he wants to start working for the people of Maryland's First District on day one. He wants to get right to work fixing our economy, securing our middle class and protecting the environment.

Those three themes were on every piece of literature and in every phone call made by the Kratovil campaign this fall, and it appears he's staying true to that course. In Wicomico County alone, Frank Kratovil won by 5,818 votes. And remember, John McCain won the county by more than 2,413.   

From the office of Congressman-Elect Frank Kratovil:

Washington, DC (November 19, 2008) - Congressman-Elect Frank Kratovil has been in Washington all week with fellow members-elect and current members of Congress as part of a new member orientation program designed to help new members hit the ground running when they are officially sworn in at the start of the 111th Congress in early January. 

The orientation has consisted of informational seminars that range from getting around the Capitol subway system to briefings on House of Representatives rules and procedures. The program has also included an extensive briefing on House ethics regulations as well as guidelines for setting up and staffing both Washington, DC and district offices. 

"So far this experience has been invaluable. Come January I want to start working for the people of Maryland's First District on day one. This experience will allow me to handle all of the paperwork and procedural stumbling blocks ahead of time so that we can get right to work fixing our economy, securing our middle class, and protecting the environment," said Kratovil. 

Kratovil has had the opportunity to meet with members of his incoming freshman class as well as members of the House leadership. Yesterday Kratovil also attended his first Blue Dog Democrats meeting, a coalition of fiscally conservative Democrats who endorsed his candidacy. "Our nation faces a great deal of challenges, but I am confident that by working with the men and women I have met this week, as well as the current members of Congress from both sides of the aisle, that we can come together and do what our constituents sent us to Washington to do," said Kratovil. 

The second part of the week will focus on committee assignments. Kratovil has expressed interest in joining a committee that will allow him to work closely with the issues that effect First District families on a daily basis, such as Agriculture, Energy and Commerce, Natural Resources, or Transportation. More information will be made available about committee assignments when it becomes available. 

So, yes, he's officially a Blue Dog Democrat. But that's not a bad thing for the Shore, and there's not much in President-Elect Barack Obama's agenda that would put him in opposition to the new president. Here's to a successful first term, and to many terms to come.

Thoughts and Questions: Nov. 19 edition

Can someone explain to me what's happening with the PAC-14 Board? I know I should care, but I can't even get the channel, because like almost 40% of Wicomico County, I can't get cable even if I wanted to. And have I mentioned just how much I hate Comcast? It's bound to come out sooner or later, so you might as well know that up front. 

But I read things like this, and wonder - who would CARE so much about wielding power of a public access channel almost half the county can't even get and almost no one watches?

SALISBURY -- Plans for Public Access Channel 14 are still murky, with some board members resigning in the latest twist.

This week Michael Day and Grace Foxwell Murdock informed Salisbury Mayor Barrie Parsons Tilghman they are stepping down from the TV station's dysfunctional board of directors.

The station broadcasts local shows and government meetings to Wicomico County viewers, but members of the station are caught in a power struggle over its future. The resignations come amid fears that PAC-14 might lose its independence in a set of bylaws now under consideration exclusively by the city and county. The station now receives practically all of its funding from the two governments.

Seriously, what am I missing here? Salisbury University is apparently giving up its role with PAC-14, and now Wicomico County and the City of Salisbury will be the sole entities supplying members to this board, although no direct tax money from residents is used in funding PAC-14, if I am to believe their website. And there better not be, because I'll be like a 60-year-old retiree complaining about paying for schools I don't have kids in if I have to pay for a cable channel the cable company won't let me buy.

But the "intrigue" mentioned in the article - no board meetings for two years, side groups being formed - really, who care that much about public access television? What am I missing here?

Metallica: Broken, Beat and Scarred

'Cause it's a Metallica kind of day, that's why.

"You rise, you fall, you're down and you rise again...what don't kill ya, makes ya more strong."

Can't wait to see them with my daughter in late January.

National Hunger and Homeless Awareness Week

From an e-mail I received at work from a volunteer...

National Hunger and Homeless Awareness Week
November 17-21, 2008


"I hollered over and said, 'Can I get you something?' I didn't know what to do." She learned the man's name was Rick. They sat on a guardrail and talked for nearly an hour. "And I began to realize that homeless people are not strange or bad or anything I saw on TV. This was just an average person for whom life took a bad turn, not much different from where mine was."

–Celeste Savage (“ HALO Director takes Detour into helping the homeless”)

Did you realize……

2300 Meals have been served at the HALO Street Program since January 2008.

20 families per week get food from the HALO Pantry.

HALO: Hope and Life Outreach 410-742-9356

Information on other local resources is on its way this week!

Do you know of a resource for homeless children? Please let us know about it!

Wicomico County has more than 1 in every 6 MD students in its public schools. Let's state that again: One in every SIX homeless students in MD goes to a school in our county. If you can help, please do.

How bad is the economy?

So bad that NASCAR is banning testing at all its sanctioned tracks next year - not Camping World Truck Series, Nationwide Series, or Sprint Cup test. Here's how bad it is - the car owners are HAPPY about it:

Reaction among competitors was almost universally positive, from drivers happy to have a little more time off to car owners who see the measure as a way of saving money that's hard to come by right now. Testing is an expensive proposition, requiring the transport of several crewmen and truckloads of equipment, and costing teams an estimated $100,000 a day.

At least they found a sponsor for the Truck Series - after looking for almost a year for a replacement for Craftsman, which has been the title sponsor since the series began 14 years ago, Camping World stepped up to take over. 

NOW it's official - Frank Kratovil wins MD-01

We can stop worrying about initial election day returns, the difference between AB1 and AB2 counts, and what qualifies a provisional ballot to be counted. All the counting is done, there's no more counting to do, and ladies and gentlemen, it's official:

Frank Kratovil (D) has won MD-01.

By a final, seriously- we-really-mean-it-this-time count of 177,065 to 174,213 Frank Kratovil has officially and completely won the race. 

A few last details I think are interesting, anyway. From the time we first got totals on Tuesday night until the AB1, Provisional and AB2 counts were completed, Frank Kratovil gained 16,151 votes while Andy Harris gained only 14,215.

So while he started out with a lead of just 916 on last Tuesday night, he ended up with a lead of 2,852. In just 30,000 or so post-Election Day votes counted, Frank added another 1,600 or so votes to his lead. That's almost a 10% difference in votes garnered for the candidates in a race that was deadlocked on Election Night. 

That's a 55/45 split in late-counted voted, the overwhelming majority of which were absentee. And absentee votes totals are almost never good news for Democrats. And the requests were split almost exactly evenly by party affiliation.

Maybe it's just a weird statistical fluke. But it does show the lengths to which some Republicans chose to go to show their displeasure with Andy Harris, and their support of Frank Kratovil.

Inauguaral Edition: Thoughts and Questions, Nov. 13th

A few thoughts and questions from reading today's DelmarvaNow.com:

*Should I be worried that the top 3 teams at the 25th annual Eastern Shore High School Mathematics Competition on Wednesday were from private schools?

*I know I should probably care about things like codes concerning pets, but I just can't bring the same level of emotion as Donald Singleton, who managed to invoke Godwin's Law in a discussion about dogs.             

     

"The last thing that I need is a group of pet Nazis trying to tell me how to take care of my dogs," said Donald Singleton, a dog owner who spoke during a public hearing in Salisbury attended by about 35 people.

*Gangs in Crisfield, huh? I don't know about you, but this quote from Crisfield Police Chief Mike Tabor isn't terribly reassuring. "They're calling themselves a gang," Tabor said. "As far as I'm concerned, it's a gang." So if they called themselves the chess team, do we agree, too?

*Not from DelmarvaNow, but just a question - why doesn't the Coastal Association of Realtors post home sales info on their site anymore? They used to list, by county, sales and median sales price. It had YTD comparisons, same month comparisons, the whole nine. It's not there now. I'm sure it's just a coincidence.

*And this guy is running for mayor. I'd vote for him if I lived in the city. Which I don't. And of which I remind him every time I see him. 

How Frank Kratovil Won

Well, for starters, he got more votes than Andy Harris. That's always a winning strategy.

Obviously, there were a lot of factors. The national wave of discontent with Pres. Bush was one. 

Or was it? In 2004, being a Republican sure didn't hurt Wayne Gilchrest. Pres. Bush did well in the 1st District in 2004 - he received 110,000 votes in just the 8 Eastern Shore counties (counting Cecil) to Kerry's 74,000. And even this year, John McCain did well, also, winning the District and winning the Shore itself by 111,000 to 85,000. Let me say that again - John McCain, the Republican in a Democratic, change is everything year, won the Eastern Shore by more than 25,000 votes. 

And yet Frank Kratovil won the district by 2,200 votes. Where did all those votes come from?

1) Mad-as-hell Gilchrest Republicans. There were 25,000 voters who voted for Gilchrest, and many didn't like the way he was treated in the campaign. And then Wayne Gilchrest endorsed Frank Kratovil. Hey, why does that 25,000 number look so familiar? Seems to be a pattern.

2) African-American voters finishing their ballot. In Wicomico County alone, more than 2,000 Democratic primary voters voted for a Presidential candidate, but didn't vote for a Congressional candidate. By the general election, that number was cut in half - only about 1,000 Presidential voters didn't cast a vote for Congress, and that includes both parties. So the "Obama and DONE!" voter from the primary took the time to vote for Congress in the general election. This was a big fear of the Kratovil campaign, that voters might not bother with down-ticket races. Thankfully, for Frank, they did.

3) The more people got to hear Andy Harris, the less they liked him. Every poll done before the general election that was released - the Kratovil internal poll, the DCCC poll that led them to invest heavily in the race, and the Daily Kos/Research 2000 poll - had this race with more than 12% undecideds. In the first two polls, with limited sample size, it was a dead heat. The dKos/R2K poll, done by a major outfit (with a stellar record this fall) showed Kratovil down by 4, but with 16% undecided. They broke 10-6 for Kratovil. For a R+10 district to break 10-6 to the Democrat is pretty amazing.

I'm glad he won. Let's celebrate Friday night up in Stevensville if you can get there (I can't, it's a Cub Scout night).  

But know this - redistricting from the 2010 census won't effect the boundaries of MD-01 until the 2012 primary. 2010 will be fought in the same places as 2008, and Democrats won't have Barack Obama's (or Wayne Gilchrest's) coattails to ride on. 

2010 will be the next fight for his political life for Frank Kratovil. That said, if he makes it through 2010, I can see the Maryland General Assembly making his life a lot easier with redistricting, and taking 10,000 Republican voters and sticking them in MD-02 and 10,000 more and sticking them in MD-03, where both incumbents won on the order of 65%-35%. They can handle the extra 20,000 Republican votes between them to help make sure a Democrat gets re-elected in MD-01.

And if the Republicans don't like gerrymandering, well, win the State House and the General Assembly and you can do something about it. Not one Republican said a word when Tom DeLay redrew the maps in Texas in 2003, did they?

'Cause it's a Hank III kind of day

It just is, that's all.

From the new CD, but this is live from October 2006.

How Frank Kratovil Wins, Pt. IX

After some good sleep and numbers crunching, I'm getting much more comfortable with the AP's call of the MD-01 race. Why, you ask?

We know they start counting provisional votes Monday. Don't expect much to change. The Maryland Court of Appeals said so in 2006. From The Sun, earlier this month:

Nearly all voters who use provisional ballots, if their names are not on the registration list at the precincts where they vote, won't have their choices counted because of a recent Maryland Court of Appeals decision. That was one of the alerts issued today by the state elections administrator, Linda H. Lamone, who predicted a historically high turnout on Nov. 4. In the past, election officials tallied provisional ballots for presidential and statewide offices but not local offices for people who vote in the wrong precinct. This year, not even the national and statewide votes will be counted, Lamone said. Provisional ballots would be tabulated, officials said, in cases in which a person votes in the correct location but hasn't updated his or her address with election officials.

So not much will change there, and if history is any guide, Andy Harris can't expect any hope from provisional ballots.

So what about those 4,800 absentees? 

Well, as it took me just a mere 4 days to figure out, not every one of those 4,800 absentees will have a Congressional vote on them. If this election is any guide with Round 1 Absentee counting, only 20,700 had a Congressional choice of the more than 25,000 counted already. I'm no math whiz, but that means only 80% or so had a Congressional vote on them.

If we figure the late absentees have about the same percentage of Congressional votes, that means there's really only 3,850 or so absentee Congressional votes left. Frank Kratovil leads by 2,003 in the latest count.

Andy Harris needs to win almost 80 percent of the absentee vote to win. Now, they may be mostly military, but I don't think Andy Harris is going to win 4 out of every 5 remaining absentee ballots.

Ain't. Gonna. Happen.

Off to a swim meet. Wish my kids luck...

How Frank Kratovil Wins, Pt. VIII

Bear with me. But I think there's a need to discuss how the AP's call of this race is immature. And I won't even bring up my questions about exactly how many absentees are left and where the AP got the 4,800 number. Let's assume that it's correct.

We're still not out of the woods yet.

A spokesman for Republican Andy Harris said the candidate was not ready to concede the race.

"With over 10,000 ballots outstanding, including many from military, regular absentee and provisionals, we were going to wait and look at the numbers," Harris campaign manager Chris Meekins said.

I hate to say this, but Meekins is right. There's still too many votes out there to declare this over, but then again, they may be too few. Read on...

We're not going to gain much, if anything out of provisionals. As The Sun reports...

Of the 4,826 provisional ballots, many are likely to be ruled invalid following a recent Maryland Court of Appeals decision that limited the conditions under which such votes may be recorded. And just 1,800 of the provisional ballots are from Baltimore, Anne Arundel or Harford counties, the only counties in which Harris outpolled Kratovil.

So, Kratovil can't expect much help from provisionals - the overwhelming majority will get tossed. But those 4,800 absentees? That's where things get dicey.

With all the absentee ballots received so far now counted, Kratovil leads Harris by 2,003 votes. On Monday, election judges are scheduled to begin counting about 4,800 provisional ballots. More absentee ballots, such as those from Marylanders living overseas, could still trickle in over the next week. They must have been postmarked by Election Day to be counted.

Now, not all of those will be military. And maybe it's unfair to assume even military votes will break strongly for Harris. But the fear is there. If Harris can somehow get a +2004 margin out of 4,800 votes, he's our winner.

This election may well come down to how many absentee voters went Libertarian with Dr. Richard Davis. And if Frank Kratovil wins, I promise Dr. Davis I'll brush and floss every day.

Let's see what Monday's numbers bring. If Frank Kratovil can drive up his margin by another 500 votes or so, this thing really is over. But not until.

UPDATE: As pointed out on dKos, it's not reasonable to expect a Congressional vote on every returned absentee vote. So of that 4,800 left, it's entirely possible there's not even 4,800 Congressional votes left. There may be as few as 4,300 or even less. Every ballot without a Congressional vote means Frank Kratovil is closer to victory.

Andy Harris would have to win the remaining absentee votes on the order of 72% to win.  And that's assuming there's a Congressional vote on every one. For every ballot without a Congressional vote, that percentage Harris needs goes up. 

It. Ain't. Happening.

And yes, I changed the title. :)

How Frank Kratovil Wins, Part VII

The Associated Press has called MD-01 for Frank Kratovil

ANNAPOLIS, Md. (AP) - Democrat Frank Kratovil has defeated Republican Andy Harris to win a seat that has been held by the GOP for 18 years in Maryland's tight 1st District congressional race.

With the first of two rounds of absentee ballots counted, Kratovil had 49 percent of the vote to 48 percent for Harris and 2 percent for Libertarian Richard Davis.

Kratovil's election-night lead of 915 votes more than doubled to 2,003 after the first absentee ballot count was completed Friday.

About 4,800 provisional ballots will be counted Monday and an unknown number of absentee ballots will arrive by mail for a final count Nov. 14, but it would be nearly impossible for Harris to reverse the trend in which he has been losing nine of the 12 counties in the district.

Kratovil released a statement saying he is honored, but he wants to wait until every vote is counted before he celebrates.

I think it's way to early to do so, but who am I to question the Associated Press?

How Frank Kratovil Wins, Pt. VI

So, the latest is this - with all Round 1 absentee ballots counted, Frank's lead is 1,998 votes. There are 6,000 more absentee votes (and at least 700 of those are from Wicomico) and we know all counties except for Cecil and Harford's margins. Talbot ended up +171 and Worcester seriously underperformed Election Day results with a paltry +137 in absentees out of 3,000 counted absentees. Not good enough, Worcester. You're on notice.

So where are we now? Well, like I said, 6,000 absentee ballots to go. But there are also 5,000 provisional ballots. I know there are 700 in Wicomico alone (with is more than 10% of the total) and there are a few hundred down in Somerset, most thanks to UMES new registrants. There should be precious little good news for Andy Harris in those provisional ballots, I would guess.

So we have a roughly 2,000 vote lead with 6,000 more to be counted. Assuming Wicomico continues to trend the way it has, it's safe to guess at least an additional +50 votes margin to Kratovil when Wicomico is said and done. Andy Harris will need 77% of the remaining Cecil and Harford absentee vote to win.

Ain't. Gonna. Happen.

UPDATE: It REALLY ain't gonna happen for Andy Harris. With Absentee Round 1 in the books, Harris only gained an extra 248 votes in Harford County out of 3,003 absentee votes counted in Round 1 Absentee counting. Wow. 

How Frank Kratovil Wins, Part V

Worcester is official - Frank picks up another 137 to his margin.

Talbot is official - Frank picks up +121 

UPDATE:

Using some basic math, there are fewer than 5,300 absentee votes to be counted in Harford. Add in the expected +100 margin left to be added in Wicomico when counting resumes tomorrow (there are ~700 votes to count in Wicomico still, and they should break +100 for Frank), Harris would have to win the absentees in Harford on the order of 4,100 to 1,050 to win. I just don't see that happening when he only took 56% on Tuesday and Frank took 40%. He'd need to take over 76% of Harford's absentees to win, and he has only outperformed his Election Day number in Worcester, I believe.

We still have to count provisionals, including a few hundred from UMES in Somerset, but the path to victory for Andy Harris looks almost non-existent at this point.

How Frank Kratovil Wins, Pt. IV

It's looking good. So far, with 7 of the counties completed their counting,  Frank Kratovil has extended his lead by another 1,000 or so votes. The current total includes Anne Arundel County and Wicomico County, which isn't done, bit its current totals are reflected in that number.

It is usually impossible for a Democrat to pick up votes during absentee counting - it almost always trends to the Republican. But a few things are at play here:

1) The majority of the requests came from the Eastern Shore - more than 15,000 of the 25,000 completed absentee votes came from the 8 Shore counties. That left only 9,400 from Harford, Anne Arundel and Baltimore counties. 

2) Rather than favor Republicans, absentee voter requests (and received ballots) were evenly split. There were 12,555 Dem completed ballots returned, as well as 12,266 Republican ballots and 3,743 other/unaffiliated. 

It's not over. Depending on which two jurisdictions are left, Andy Harris has a mathematical chance of overtaking Kratovil. But given what we know, and what is reasonable to predict, I'd much rather be Frank Kratovil right now.

The graph below is what I predicted would happen once we knew where all the absentee ballots were coming from. (Really, I did, you can ask Frank's guy in Salisbury). So far, it looks good, but there's a chance he's actually under performing his Eastern Shore numbers (which should be a +2,000 margin for him) and under performing on the western shore, where he should lose about 2,000 votes of whatever lead he gained in the Shore counting. Since this +1,000 number includes one western county, he may be doing just fine. 

But maybe not. As long as Frank does no worse than a net loss of 1,000 on the western shore and does at least +1,200 on the Eastern Shore, he should be OK. You've only got to win by one.

UPDATE: According to TwoSentz, Frank has won Anne Arundel County absentee votes by 16. Wow. I think I hear a large woman practicing vocal scales...

MD-01 Absentee Vote Count starts at 10 a.m.

The MD State Board of Elections will post its results as they receive them. Links to the information should be posted at

http://www.elections.state.md.us/press_room/index.html

or possibly the home page,

http://www.elections.state.md.us/index.html

Here's hoping for good news. Right now, it's Frank +916. He should pick up votes in the absentee vote count - requests were evenly split among Republicans and Democrats, and three-fifths of the requests came from the Eastern Shore. Kratovil won every county on the Shore.