How Frank Kratovil Wins, Pt. IX

After some good sleep and numbers crunching, I'm getting much more comfortable with the AP's call of the MD-01 race. Why, you ask?

We know they start counting provisional votes Monday. Don't expect much to change. The Maryland Court of Appeals said so in 2006. From The Sun, earlier this month:

Nearly all voters who use provisional ballots, if their names are not on the registration list at the precincts where they vote, won't have their choices counted because of a recent Maryland Court of Appeals decision. That was one of the alerts issued today by the state elections administrator, Linda H. Lamone, who predicted a historically high turnout on Nov. 4. In the past, election officials tallied provisional ballots for presidential and statewide offices but not local offices for people who vote in the wrong precinct. This year, not even the national and statewide votes will be counted, Lamone said. Provisional ballots would be tabulated, officials said, in cases in which a person votes in the correct location but hasn't updated his or her address with election officials.

So not much will change there, and if history is any guide, Andy Harris can't expect any hope from provisional ballots.

So what about those 4,800 absentees? 

Well, as it took me just a mere 4 days to figure out, not every one of those 4,800 absentees will have a Congressional vote on them. If this election is any guide with Round 1 Absentee counting, only 20,700 had a Congressional choice of the more than 25,000 counted already. I'm no math whiz, but that means only 80% or so had a Congressional vote on them.

If we figure the late absentees have about the same percentage of Congressional votes, that means there's really only 3,850 or so absentee Congressional votes left. Frank Kratovil leads by 2,003 in the latest count.

Andy Harris needs to win almost 80 percent of the absentee vote to win. Now, they may be mostly military, but I don't think Andy Harris is going to win 4 out of every 5 remaining absentee ballots.

Ain't. Gonna. Happen.

Off to a swim meet. Wish my kids luck...