So where are we now? Well, like I said, 6,000 absentee ballots to go. But there are also 5,000 provisional ballots. I know there are 700 in Wicomico alone (with is more than 10% of the total) and there are a few hundred down in Somerset, most thanks to UMES new registrants. There should be precious little good news for Andy Harris in those provisional ballots, I would guess.
So we have a roughly 2,000 vote lead with 6,000 more to be counted. Assuming Wicomico continues to trend the way it has, it's safe to guess at least an additional +50 votes margin to Kratovil when Wicomico is said and done. Andy Harris will need 77% of the remaining Cecil and Harford absentee vote to win.
Ain't. Gonna. Happen.
UPDATE: It REALLY ain't gonna happen for Andy Harris. With Absentee Round 1 in the books, Harris only gained an extra 248 votes in Harford County out of 3,003 absentee votes counted in Round 1 Absentee counting. Wow.
4 comments:
HEE HEE!!!! I AM SO HAPPYYYY!!!
Let's temper our excitement for now. We're looking good, but I've learned not to take anything for granted.
This is from PolitickerMD:
Day after the day after analysis of a blowout
posted by Chester Towner
The main reason for the Harris debacle on the Shore is his campaign manager, Meekins, whose claim to fame was (MD) Senator Jacobs' campaign in an right-wing district on the Western Shore. Her latest news is being named the Re publican's "minority whip." Cheap shots might work in that district -- but not here.
What got Harris where he reached is the funding that he got from special sponsors such as the Club for Growth. Without that (and those mailers, ads and robocalls) he would have lost to Gilchrest, and we would have a Republican Congressman for sure.
Yes, at the end Frank Kratovil had ample funding, too, but he made much better presentations and had more and better boots on the ground from the mid-summer thru Nov. 4. Also, his aggressive counter-punching -- and especially the prompt exposure of the deliberate misstatements about, first, his comment on the fiscal crisis and then his record as State's Attorney -- flushed the Harris/Meekins' mud down the drain. That is probably the leading secondary factor, and it would not have emerged as such but for guidance by the latter.
Another significant factor is the Harris persona. I agree with an earlier comment that he bombed in the debate at SU (I was there), and apparently he didn't do much better elsewhere. It's one thing to be a back-bench bombadier in Annapolis and another to go one-on-one with someone who knows how to reach and parry from years in the courtroom.
And let's not attribute much to Harris being a foreigner on Delmarva. Like Rogers Morton, Kratovil is a "come here". In essence, Harris and Meekins may have totally blown their double digit lead of just 2 months ago by their own actions during that period. We'll know for Shore in a few days.
And the crowning moment was the "victory party" the Harris campaign had at the crab house on election night, when he didn't even mingle with his gathered supporters or address them. They can't be blamed for saying "never again."
Hopefully, Dr. Harris' deal with Meekins provides for a bonus if he wins but not much pay otherwise. No doubt in his next campaign, whatever the office, the doctor will have other talent.
Duck is ON IT!
Post a Comment