How Frank Kratovil wins

I don't know much about politics, and I leave math to my 8-year-old (seriously, he can do Algebra I stuff in his head). 

But much like my brother-in-law and his Fantasy Football (and NASCAR) teams, I do love me some spreadsheets in Excel. And the State Board of Elections does a great job of posting tables and tables worth of info. And, I discovered this morning, they've given the key to Frank Kratovil winning this election.

Just look at the 2008 primary election returns. The path to victory for Frank Kratovil is rather simple - keep the Dems, and take 25% of the Gilchrest Republicans. Seriously, that's it. 

We all remember how contentious the Republican Primary was. E.J. Pipkin and Andy Harris launched frontal assaults on Rep. Wayne T. Gilchrest, who didn't see what hit him until it was too late. Commercials were everywhere. They dominated the news coverage. Gallons of ink were spilled pontificating on the contest. Andy Harris won by 8,000 in an election with 77,000 votes cast. In the end, it was a bit of a blowout.

Frank Kratovil? Sure, Chris Robinson drew a little interest locally, but it really wasn't close.  Frank won by 6,500 votes in an election with 71,000 or so cast. 

Now, read that last number again.  That's right, there were only 6,000 fewer votes cast in Democratic primary than the Republican Primary. Out of 148,529 votes cast, 71,000 of them went to a Democrat in a closed primary.

So how does Frank win? Two steps:

1. Keep the Dems home. Make sure every Democrat you can get to the polls votes for Kratovil. Here's the problem - almost 2,000 more voters in just Wicomico County voted for a Democratic nominee for president without voting in the Congressional race. It's a fear that's justified that voters may feel content to pull a lever for Barack Obama and be done.

2. Get SOME (not even all) of the Gilchrest voters. More than 25,000 voters voted for Gilchrest. If Kratovil can keep the Dems and gain just 1 in 4 Gilchrest voters - 6,500 or so - Kratovil will be our next Congressman. This doesn't include any Pipkin voters - if Kratovil attracts any Pipkin supporters of any statistical consequence, his path becomes easier.

If you haven't voted, vote. If you have voted, tell your friends, your co-workers, your relatives how important it is to make sure they vote for Kratovil for Congress.