How Frank Kratovil Wins, Pt. VIII

Bear with me. But I think there's a need to discuss how the AP's call of this race is immature. And I won't even bring up my questions about exactly how many absentees are left and where the AP got the 4,800 number. Let's assume that it's correct.

We're still not out of the woods yet.

A spokesman for Republican Andy Harris said the candidate was not ready to concede the race.

"With over 10,000 ballots outstanding, including many from military, regular absentee and provisionals, we were going to wait and look at the numbers," Harris campaign manager Chris Meekins said.

I hate to say this, but Meekins is right. There's still too many votes out there to declare this over, but then again, they may be too few. Read on...

We're not going to gain much, if anything out of provisionals. As The Sun reports...

Of the 4,826 provisional ballots, many are likely to be ruled invalid following a recent Maryland Court of Appeals decision that limited the conditions under which such votes may be recorded. And just 1,800 of the provisional ballots are from Baltimore, Anne Arundel or Harford counties, the only counties in which Harris outpolled Kratovil.

So, Kratovil can't expect much help from provisionals - the overwhelming majority will get tossed. But those 4,800 absentees? That's where things get dicey.

With all the absentee ballots received so far now counted, Kratovil leads Harris by 2,003 votes. On Monday, election judges are scheduled to begin counting about 4,800 provisional ballots. More absentee ballots, such as those from Marylanders living overseas, could still trickle in over the next week. They must have been postmarked by Election Day to be counted.

Now, not all of those will be military. And maybe it's unfair to assume even military votes will break strongly for Harris. But the fear is there. If Harris can somehow get a +2004 margin out of 4,800 votes, he's our winner.

This election may well come down to how many absentee voters went Libertarian with Dr. Richard Davis. And if Frank Kratovil wins, I promise Dr. Davis I'll brush and floss every day.

Let's see what Monday's numbers bring. If Frank Kratovil can drive up his margin by another 500 votes or so, this thing really is over. But not until.

UPDATE: As pointed out on dKos, it's not reasonable to expect a Congressional vote on every returned absentee vote. So of that 4,800 left, it's entirely possible there's not even 4,800 Congressional votes left. There may be as few as 4,300 or even less. Every ballot without a Congressional vote means Frank Kratovil is closer to victory.

Andy Harris would have to win the remaining absentee votes on the order of 72% to win.  And that's assuming there's a Congressional vote on every one. For every ballot without a Congressional vote, that percentage Harris needs goes up. 

It. Ain't. Happening.

And yes, I changed the title. :)