How Frank Kratovil Won

Well, for starters, he got more votes than Andy Harris. That's always a winning strategy.

Obviously, there were a lot of factors. The national wave of discontent with Pres. Bush was one. 

Or was it? In 2004, being a Republican sure didn't hurt Wayne Gilchrest. Pres. Bush did well in the 1st District in 2004 - he received 110,000 votes in just the 8 Eastern Shore counties (counting Cecil) to Kerry's 74,000. And even this year, John McCain did well, also, winning the District and winning the Shore itself by 111,000 to 85,000. Let me say that again - John McCain, the Republican in a Democratic, change is everything year, won the Eastern Shore by more than 25,000 votes. 

And yet Frank Kratovil won the district by 2,200 votes. Where did all those votes come from?

1) Mad-as-hell Gilchrest Republicans. There were 25,000 voters who voted for Gilchrest, and many didn't like the way he was treated in the campaign. And then Wayne Gilchrest endorsed Frank Kratovil. Hey, why does that 25,000 number look so familiar? Seems to be a pattern.

2) African-American voters finishing their ballot. In Wicomico County alone, more than 2,000 Democratic primary voters voted for a Presidential candidate, but didn't vote for a Congressional candidate. By the general election, that number was cut in half - only about 1,000 Presidential voters didn't cast a vote for Congress, and that includes both parties. So the "Obama and DONE!" voter from the primary took the time to vote for Congress in the general election. This was a big fear of the Kratovil campaign, that voters might not bother with down-ticket races. Thankfully, for Frank, they did.

3) The more people got to hear Andy Harris, the less they liked him. Every poll done before the general election that was released - the Kratovil internal poll, the DCCC poll that led them to invest heavily in the race, and the Daily Kos/Research 2000 poll - had this race with more than 12% undecideds. In the first two polls, with limited sample size, it was a dead heat. The dKos/R2K poll, done by a major outfit (with a stellar record this fall) showed Kratovil down by 4, but with 16% undecided. They broke 10-6 for Kratovil. For a R+10 district to break 10-6 to the Democrat is pretty amazing.

I'm glad he won. Let's celebrate Friday night up in Stevensville if you can get there (I can't, it's a Cub Scout night).  

But know this - redistricting from the 2010 census won't effect the boundaries of MD-01 until the 2012 primary. 2010 will be fought in the same places as 2008, and Democrats won't have Barack Obama's (or Wayne Gilchrest's) coattails to ride on. 

2010 will be the next fight for his political life for Frank Kratovil. That said, if he makes it through 2010, I can see the Maryland General Assembly making his life a lot easier with redistricting, and taking 10,000 Republican voters and sticking them in MD-02 and 10,000 more and sticking them in MD-03, where both incumbents won on the order of 65%-35%. They can handle the extra 20,000 Republican votes between them to help make sure a Democrat gets re-elected in MD-01.

And if the Republicans don't like gerrymandering, well, win the State House and the General Assembly and you can do something about it. Not one Republican said a word when Tom DeLay redrew the maps in Texas in 2003, did they?